If Doyle doesn’t go, it will be because leading Wisconsin Democrats put the kibosh on the deal. A top Democratic source tells me state party leaders are telling the President-elect Obama team that a Doyle resignation in Wisconsin will be disastrous for the party here. They believe that Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton would be in over her head and could not manage the political fallout from the massive tax increases the Democrats are planning to use to close the state’s looming $5 billion budget deficit.

These Democrats fear that an unelected governor like Lawton, fresh from a major tax hike, would be political toast in 2010. There are historical reasons for their fears. The last two lieutenant governors to ascend to the top job, Democrat Marty Schreiber in 1977 and Republican Scott McCallum in 2001, were creamed when they sought election the following year. Besides, Lawton is a dim bulb who has been kept in the shadows by Doyle for good reason.

On the other hand, Doyle would like to get out of Dodge. If he sticks around, he’ll face a difficult re-election in 2010, a year that could be a Republican landslide (the party that loses the White House usually makes enormous gains two years later). He is facing a fiscal nightmare with a huge budget deficit, a recession and having to deal with all the borrowing the state did in his last four years.

Obama owes him a big debt for the masterful job Doyle did in guiding Obama’s big wins in both the state Democratic primary and the general election. He could tab Doyle for the Department of Health and Human Services (the job Wisconsinites keep getting; Donna Shalala and Tommy Thompson both held it). Doyle might even be in line for attorney general. Obama would love a political hack running the justice department and Jim Doyle is pathologically political and quintessentially a hack.

There is a third alternative and it may be the likeliest. Doyle could be appointed to a federal judgeship. John Shabaz, the veteran federal judge who presides in the Madison-based district that covers western Wisconsin, is in poor health. Doyle’s father held that judgeship for many years and a lifetime appointment would be a dream job for a broken-down liberal activist like Doyle. The guy was born to legislate from the bench.

Here’s how it would play out. To appease state Democrats, Lawton has to be gotten out of the picture. She could be given a low-level job in the Obama administration. Doyle would appoint a more qualified replacement. That replacement would then become governor in a few months after Doyle moves to the judgeship. You read it here first: The likely designee would be Matt Frank, head of the state Department of Natural Resources. (Democrats must hate that a right-winger like me is hearing all their plotting.)

If Doyle does leave, the big winner is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for governor, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker. But don’t discount the possibility, first mentioned in this column months ago, that Tommy Thompson could resurface and try to win back the one job he most loved. On the Democratic side, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett might run in a Democratic primary against whoever succeeded Doyle if he quits.

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Last week’s column about the botched investigation of the death of prominent Mequon surgeon Dr. Bradley Mays has caused a firestorm in Ozaukee County. EVERYONE is talking about the case. What has not happened, however, is any response from the public officials whose job and duty is to see justice done when someone dies.

As recounted last week, Mays’ blood relatives have obtained experts who have shot gaping holes in the finding that the 44-year old surgeon died of hypotrophic cardiomyopathy. The reason they are suspicious in the first place is because of unusual circumstances in Mays’ marriage in the days before his death.

According to the police report from Mequon detectives, Mays was living in a hotel for the 2 1/2 weeks prior to his death. He and his wife had consulted a banker over financial problems. Numerous friends and relatives told police the marriage was in trouble. Mays’ widow, Carrie, is not joining the other relatives in asking for a new investigation nor has she agreed to release autopsy materials.

The medical examiner who performed the autopsy has quit and moved to Florida. The district attorney, Sandy Williams (whose husband is closely acquainted with Carrie Mays’ father, former Milwaukee County Judge Frank T. Crivello), is saying the county’s elected coroner, John Holicek, is the only one who can release the autopsy materials. Holicek says he trusts the medical examiner’s finding and won’t cooperate further without proof of foul play. The Mequon police chief, Steve Graff, is reacting like a deer staring into headlights.

I personally know many members of the prominent Crivello family of which Carrie Mays is part. It is extremely uncomfortable for me to be raising questions about this case. It is pathetic therefore that a talk show host/columnist with no ax to grind is showing more interest in seeing that a proper and unbiased investigation is done than are the Mequon and Ozaukee officials whose duty is to do so.

(Mark Belling is the host of a daily WISN radio talk show. His column runs Wednesdays in The Freeman.)