Scott Walker doesn’t intend to let the
Wisconsin governorship get away from him this time. The Milwaukee County
executive ran for the job for a few months in 2004 before aborting his
candidacy because fellow Republican Mark Green, a Green Bay congressman,
was raising more campaign funds and had the support of the majority of
the state party leadership. As usual, the party bosses bet on the wrong
horse as Green ran a lackluster campaign and was beaten by Jim Doyle.
This time around, Walker is making it clear he won’t be dropping
out of anything and is fully determined to win the governorship back for
the slumping Republicans. Walker will announce his candidacy no later
than January and is already planning a major fundraiser to kick off the
effort. That’s right, January of ‘09. The election may not be until
the end of 2010, but Walker intends to spend a full 18 months raising
the kind of money necessary to scare off any potential Republican
challengers and, more importantly, beat Jim Doyle (or whomever the
Democrat is) in the general election.
What Walker has done in Milwaukee County is amazing. He has governed
from the right in a county whose voting patterns are clearly from the
left. He has held the line on property taxes at the same time
neighboring governments have raised their levies through the roof. He
has managed the county through the nightmare created by monstrous
pension benefits implemented by his predecessor and the county board.
His administration hasn’t had a hint of scandal.
Walker’s fiscal responsibility message will be especially powerful
in 2010 if, as expected, the Democrats deal with a massive state budget
deficit by passing monster tax hikes. He is a political nightmare for
the Democrats. No Democrat can carry Wisconsin without getting at least
60 percent of the vote in Milwaukee County. Walker’s Milwaukee
popularity gives him a real chance of actually winning the county
outright. He has benefited from years of coverage in the Milwaukee media
that has made him extremely popular in conservative suburban counties. A
lot of voters in Washington, Racine, Ozaukee and Waukesha counties have
been chomping at the bit in anticipation of getting a chance to vote for
the one politician who walks the no-tax walk.
A few other Republicans are considering running. Tommy Thompson’s
9-foot shadow is still lurking. Former state Republican chair Rick
Graber wants to run (he’s a great guy but the state treasurer job is
the one that ought to have Graber’s name on it). Some think
Congressman Paul Ryan might run but that’s very unlikely. In any
event, by getting the jump on all of them by aggressively beginning his
fundraising now, Walker is likely to do to any other Republicans what
Green did to him.
Walker is hardly the most charismatic politician in the world but he’s
still relatively young, he’s great on television and he may have the
right message in 2010 after Obama, Doyle, Pelosi and the teachers union
combine to give us a tax burden an elephant couldn’t carry. The Scott
Walker governor campaign is on. Don’t bet against it.
* * *
The pension obligations that are driving General Motors, Ford and
Chrysler to the grave are ominous warnings of what is in store for
taxpayers the next 20 years. The auto companies are collapsing under the
weight of having to pay enormous retirement benefits to the hundreds of
thousands of workers who have either retired or been laid off.
The terrible Wisconsin policy of allowing public employees, including
teachers, to retire after 35 years of service is beginning to produce
the same problem here. As the baby boomers are moving into retirement
years, the pension rolls are going to be overwhelmed. The problem is
being exacerbated by the stock market crash which is draining money out
of the pension funds.
GM has five retirees for every active worker. Wisconsin will
eventually have several hundred thousand public retirees on the dole
with a decreasing supply of tax-paying workers to support them. At least
the auto companies can go bankrupt and dump the pensions on the federal
government. Taxpayers in Wisconsin won’t have that option.
The same problem will occur at the federal level as millions of baby
boomers go on the Social Security and Medicare dole. Both systems are
headed for bust. To make matters worse, Obama and the congressional
Democrats seem bent on creating even more entitlement programs. In 20
years, when the youngest baby boomer will be 64 years old, it is
impossible to imagine where the money will come from to pay all of these
retirement costs.
* * *
Democratic sources tell me it is now highly unlikely Governor Doyle
will be named to a top Obama administration job now. It is much more
likely that incompetent Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton will be named to a low
level federal post in order to allow Doyle to name a more able
replacement for her. This would allow Obama to eventually give Doyle a
federal job without leaving Democrats here in the lurch by having to put
up with a "Governor" Lawton.
(Mark Belling is the host of a daily WISN radio talk show. His column
runs Wednesdays in The Freeman.)