SAN FRANCISCO
— Who's really driving your car?
In an ominous line from the classic
1968 film "2001: A Space Odyssey," a computer
named HAL 9000 claimed it was "by any practical
definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of
error."
Of course, HAL was
"self-aware" and became more than just a
little dangerous, killing four crewmates before the
fifth one managed to shut it down.
Science fiction? Sure. But while the
tiny computers tasked to manage today's vehicles aren't
consciously plotting against mankind, they present
manufacturers and drivers with a whole new set of
potential problems that can't be solved with a wrench.
Toyota Motor Corp., for instance,
recently recalled about 400,000 model year 2010 Prius
hybrids. The flagship high-tech gas sipper suffers from
a software glitch that keeps the brakes from responding
appropriately.
This comes on the heels of the 8
million vehicles the company previously recalled for
sticky pedals and floor mats — problems that Toyota
says are purely mechanical.
Still, there has been speculation,
including some disturbing words from the likes of Apple
co-founder Steve Wozniak, that software programs may in
fact be a much bigger issue than Toyota is
acknowledging.
Now, fresh reports have begun to
surface that Toyota is facing yet another problem; this
time with the electric power steering on its 2009 and
2010 Corollas, the second best-selling vehicle in the
United States.
The headlines might make it appear
otherwise, but the growing pains brought on by
new-fangled technology don't begin and end with the
world's biggest automaker.
Earlier this month, Ford Motor Co.
announced a thinly-veiled recall of its own by issuing
what it called a "customer satisfaction
program" to the 17,600 owners of its Fusion and
Mercury Milan hybrids. Like Toyota, the fix involves
updating the program to ensure the cars' brakes respond
in real time.
So when does it end? Not anytime soon,
according to Edmunds.com Chief Executive Jeremy Anwyl,
who urged competitors not to feel too smug about Toyota
problems.
"As these vehicles grow in
technical complexity, we'll see more and more mysterious
situations that are very hard to diagnose," he
said.
Anwyl went on to say that there should
be an audit trail that makes it actually easier to
figure out when and where a problem arises, thought
that's not always the case.
Michael Robinet, an automotive analyst
for CSM Worldwide in Michigan, said that what we've seen
so far in terms of bringing electronics into the
vehicles is "just the tip of the iceberg" and
recent glitches need to be taken in stride.
"There are always going to be
some bumps in the road along the way, but the public
should bear in mind that it's just the nature of the
beast," Robinet said. "We're talking about
machines that have 3,000 parts working to come together
in harmony."
In order to meet more stringent
mileage and emissions standards, carmakers have no
choice but to concentrate on making the push, he added.
"Manufacturers in their trek to
eke more and more fuel economy out of tomorrow's
vehicles are going to have to focus on weight reduction
in the car," he said.
Robinet explained lightweight
electronics are now being used to replace the far
heavier mechanical components that for decades ran a
car's brake, fuel and steering systems.
The burgeoning demand for cutting edge
technology under the hood is reflected in the segment's
booming semiconductor business.
Total sales for car-related chips grew
9 percent from $15.8 billion in 2005 to $17.1 billion in
2008, according to International Data Corp.
Revenue dipped to $14.6 billion last
year as demand for cars dropped sharply, but it is
projected to reach $19.1 billion by 2013. IDC said.
IC Insights, a technology research
group focused on the semiconductor industry, projects
two groups of automotive chips—one analog, which turn
such elements as pressure and temperature into digital
signals that computer can understand, and the other
digital — to be among the top five best growing
segments of the chip market in 2010.
"It's really been quite a market
that's been establishing itself in the background,"
analyst Roger Kay of Endpoint Technologies Associates
said.
Microprocessors are used for a range
of functions, from controlling a car's engine, brakes
and security systems, to running its navigation and
entertainment systems.
Chips and high-tech components have
also played an increasing role in safety, warning about
collision dangers while cars are backing up or changing
lanes.
Because of the nature of the market,
the demands for quality control are higher, industry
executives say.
"You have a much more rugged
environment than any other market segment you can think
of," said Paul Grimme, general manager of
STMicroelectronics' automotive product group. "A
consumer application is not going to have the same kind
of requirement where you want to work in cold
temperatures in Alaska and warm temperatures on the
Equator."
STMicroelectronics had the biggest
share of the automotive chip market in terms of revenue
in 2008, according to IDC.
Kim Morgan, spokesman for Texas
Instruments, which had the fourth largest market share
in 2008, said the biggest concern about the use
semiconductors has more to do with driver distraction, a
whole different issue automakers must face.
"The demand is up for
entertainment features," she said. "But we
have to balance that and work with customers because the
use of these cool features is also fueling concerns
about distracted driving safety."
Brian Matas, vice president of market
research at IC Insights, said he's heard a bit more
chatter about the need to "back off on the big push
to move ahead with everything electronic" and that
the industry may need to reevaluate some things.
"I'm not sure how much of it is
1/8chip3/8 related or a software issue," he said.
"Whether it's one or the other, it's certainly a
red flag as the industry looks to embed and incorporate
more electronics into the system."
Still, he agreed that the long-term
trend is definitely toward more electronics, not less.
"Some of it's a bit of
overkill," he added, pointing out that each
technological implementation is just "one more
thing that can go wrong in a car."