There is no
doubt that 2009 will go down as a miserable year for
automakers. "Cash for Clunkers" certainly made
a lot of noise, but a recent survey suggests that of the
nearly 700,000 buyers who took advantage of the program,
nearly half would have likely bought a new car this year
anyway.
That extra 350,000 or so sales is no
drop in the bucket, but since total sales are expected
to be between 10 million and 11 million this year, it's
hardly the lifesaver that manufacturers needed,
especially since September sales are on track to be one
of the worst months ever and dealers are suffering
what's being called "clunker hangover."
Even so, life goes on, and that means
manufacturers are continuing to roll out new models.
Yes, there have been some
cancellations and postponements of new vehicles, but the
list of vehicles coming to a showroom near you, or are
already there, is downright startling.
I mention this because it's time to
begin contemplating the annual "Of The Year"
awards: Motor Trend will name its top car, and Car and
Driver will name its "10 Best," and dozens of
other publications and Web sites and TV shows will name
theirs. But since 1994, perhaps the most coveted award
is the North American Car and Truck of the Year, because
it is decided by a panel of 50 automotive journalists,
rather than from a single source. I'm the only voting
member of the panel in the Southeast, and I am already
aware this will be a very tough decision.
To be eligible, vehicles must be
either new, or substantially changed from last year. The
winner and two runners-up will be announced at the North
American International Auto Show in Detroit in January.
Here is the "long list" of
vehicles that we'll narrow down to a dozen or so, before
that final vote:
Audi S4, BMW Z4, BMW 335d (diesel),
BMW 5-series GT, Buick LaCrosse, Cadillac CTS Sport
Wagon, Chevrolet Camaro, Ford Fusion, Ford Fusion
Hybrid, Ford Mustang, Ford Mustang GT500, Ford Taurus,
Ford Taurus SHO, Honda Insight, Hyundai Genesis Coupe,
Hyundai Elantra Touring, Jaguar XFR, Kia Forte, Kia
Soul, Lexus HS250 H (hybrid), Lexus IS250/350 C
(convertibles), Mazda3 and MazdaSpeed 3, Mercedes
E-class, Nissan Cube, Nissan 370Z, Porsche Panamera,
Subaru Legacy, Suzuki Kizashi, Toyota Prius and
Volkswagen Golf/Golf TDI.
For a down year, this is inarguably
one of the strongest bunch of candidates we've ever had.
Just look at hybrids alone: a new Honda Insight, a
redesigned Toyota Prius, the new under-$35,000 Lexus
hybrid sedan, and the excellent Ford Fusion Hybrid.
Look at the sportier models: a
brand-new Chevrolet Camaro; an updated Ford Mustang; the
return of the powerful Ford Taurus SHO, a very appealing
coupe version of last year's winner, the Hyundai
Genesis; a redesigned Nissan 370Z; the Jaguar XFR; and
Porsche's first four-door sports car, the Panamera.
The candidates for the 2010 North
American Truck of the Year are solid but less
exceptional: Acura ZDX, Audi Q5, BMW X5 xDrive35d
diesel, Cadillac SRX, Chevrolet Equinox, Chevrolet
Silverado Hybrid, Ford Transit Connect, GMC Terrain, GMC
Sierra Hybrid, Honda Crosstour, Land Rover LR4, Lexus
RX350/450h, Lincoln MKT, Subaru Outback, Toyota 4Runner,
Volvo XC60 and the Volkswagen Touareg V-6 TDI diesel.
The awards are tough to handicap by
manufacturer. In the past 16 years, domestic automakers
have won North American Car of the Year eight times,
Japanese automakers three times, European automakers
four times. Last year, the Korean-built Hyundai Genesis
was the first car to win from that country. In the truck
category, domestic automakers won 10 times, Japanese
automakers four times, and European automakers have won
twice.
So who will win this year? I've never
been so unsure, and I take that as very good sign for
automakers.