WASHINGTON - The
economy is rebounding from its deepest slump since the 1930s, but
it probably won't seem that way when the government releases its
monthly employment report on Friday.
Employers aren't
expected to start adding jobs for several more months. Many are
skeptical about the strength and sustainability of the recovery,
The nation's
economy probably lost a net total of 175,000 jobs in October,
pushing the unemployment rate to 9.9 percent, according to a
survey of Wall Street economists by Thomson Reuters. The Labor
Department report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EST (1230
GMT).
Most economists
think the rate will eventually surpass 10 percent, a level last
seen in June 1983.
The economy grew
at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, the
government said last week, the strongest signal yet that the
recession has ended. But that alone won't spur rapid hiring,
raising the likelihood of a "jobless recovery."
"You need
explosive growth to take the unemployment rate down," said
Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based
investment firm Miller Tabak & Co.
Greenhaus said
the economy soared by nearly 8 percent in 1983 after a steep
recession, lowering the jobless rate by 2.5 percentage points that
year. But the economy is unlikely to improve that fast this time,
as consumers remain cautious and tight credit hinders businesses.
In fact, many analysts expect economic growth to moderate early
next year, as the impact of various government stimulus programs
fades.
On Capitol Hill,
the House on Thursday sought to bolster the economy by approving a
$24 billion measure that expands a popular homebuyers' tax credit
and extends unemployment insurance for 14 to 20 weeks. The
additional jobless benefits are intended to prevent almost 2
million recipients from running out of aid during the upcoming
holiday season. It is the fourth extension of benefits during the
recession and means that unemployed workers in some states can
claim up to 99 weeks of support, a record.
The Senate
approved the bill Wednesday and President Barack Obama is expected
to sign it.
On Wall Street, a
better-than-expected jobless claims report and an upbeat forecast
from Cisco Systems Inc. buoyed investors Thursday. The Dow Jones
industrial average added nearly 204 points to 10,005.96, and
broader indexes also gained.
Still, jobs
likely will remain scarce even as the economy improves. The
uncertainty surrounding the pace of the recovery has made many
employers reluctant to hire, economists said. And many companies
have cut hours for workers still on their payrolls, which means
they can add those hours back before hiring new people.
Diane Swonk,
chief economist at Mesirow Financial, said that small businesses,
a primary engine of job creation, still face tight credit and
don't have the cash reserves to support extra workers.
Fein Tool North
America, a Cincinnati company that supplies auto parts
manufacturers, has cut about 100 workers, or 33 percent of its
staff. But Fein President Ralph Hardt said the company can still
fill its orders by using more overtime shifts and temporary
workers.
Hardt said he
plans to slowly rehire once the economy picks up again. "If I
see signs of recovery, I am going to hire back, but I am going to
be very prudent," he said.
The recoveries
following the last two recessions in 1991 and 2001 also were
considered "jobless" as the unemployment rate didn't
peak until 15 months and 19 months, respectively, after they
ended.
Economists cite
several reasons why job growth is increasingly lagging recoveries.
To begin with, layoffs are more likely to be permanent, compared
with temporary furloughs by manufacturers in earlier downturns.
And globalization has made it easier for companies to hire
overseas when rebounds begin.
Many companies
also are squeezing more production from their existing work
forces. Productivity, the amount of output per hour worked, jumped
9.5 percent in the third quarter, the Labor Department said
Thursday.
That's the
sharpest increase in six years and followed a 6.6 percent rise in
the second quarter. The increases enable companies to produce more
without hiring extra workers.
Still, many
economists saw a bright side: companies can only drive their
existing workers so far. Eventually, they will have to hire more
people as the economy improves.
"You just
can't get blood from a turnip," Swonk said.
The Labor
Department said Thursday that new jobless claims fell to 512,000
last week, the lowest level in 10 months.
Economists
closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of the
pace of layoffs and an indication of employers' willingness to
hire new workers. Claims remain well above the roughly 400,000
that economists say will signal job creation.
The Federal
Reserve, meanwhile, said Wednesday that it will keep a key
interest rate at a record low level of nearly zero for an
"extended period" in order to support the economy.
The central bank
said economic activity has "continued to pick up," but
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues warned that rising
joblessness and tight credit could restrain the rebound in the
months ahead.
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