Following a shaky start to 2014, the National Retail Federation
announced Tuesday it expects sales in November and December to
increase a by 4.1 percent - up to $616.9 billion.
The numbers -
which exclude automobile, gas and restaurant sales - would be a
step up from the 3.1 percent increase over the same time period
federation’s forecast is based on an economic model that focuses
on indicators such as disposable personal income, consumer
credit and previous monthly retail sales releases.
could see a welcome boost in holiday shopping, giving some
companies the shot in the arm they need after a volatile first
half of the year and an uneventful summer,” NRF President and
CEO Matthew Shay said. “While expectations for sales growth are
upbeat, it goes without saying there still remains some
uneasiness and anxiety among consumers when it comes to their
that, while improving, the lagging economic recovery is still on
the minds of many American shoppers.
confidence has been unstable in 2014,recent improvements in key
economic indicators will give way to increased spending power
among holiday shoppers, according to the forecast.
have only seen consumer income and spending moderately - and
erratically - accelerate this year, we believe there is still
room for optimism this holiday season,” said NRF Chief Economist
Jack Kleinhenz. “In the grand scheme of things, consumers are in
a much better place than they were this time last year, and the
extra spending power could very well translate into solid
holiday sales growth for retailers.”
holiday sales have grown by 2.9 percent over the past 10 years,
including this year’s estimate, and should represent
approximately 19.2 percent of the retail industry’s total of
$3.2 trillion in sales.