HONG
KONG - Raise your hand if you’ve heard this before:
Successful investments in China require patience. Lots
of patience.
The mantra hasn’t changed. But after years of
waiting, along with more sour investments than anyone
can count, serious money is looking at the world’s
most populous nation as far more than a speculative bet.
That was one of the messages at the Asian Venture
Forum here last week. Hundreds of investment
professionals gathered at a luxury hotel to commiserate
about shared woes in the wake of the continuing global
economic troubles, but also to buzz about the genuine
potential in China and other Asian markets.
China’s economy is racing along, growing at a rate
that makes investors drool. Troubled companies in Japan
and Korea still offer merger or buyout possibilities.
And some major recent deals have turned profits.
But venture investing in the region is going in the
same direction as investing everywhere else - down. The
bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, the 1997 regional
economic crisis and current weakness in the global
economy are still hanging over the markets.
Asia venture funds raised a little under $10 billion
in new money in 2001, far below the nearly $18 billion
in the peak year of 2000, according to the Asian Venture
Capital Journal. Investments dropped, but by a much
smaller percentage, from $12.3 billion to $11.2 billion.
Seed capital and start-up investments accounted for only
a quarter of the money. Two-fifths went into expanding
existing businesses.
Technology-related companies - telecommunications,
electronics, computer equipment and other information
technology - accounted for about 41 percent of the total
investments for the year. Financial services captured
about 13 percent.
One person’s worry is another’s opportunity. Some
big investors from overseas are dramatically expanding
their Asian presence, saying the time to move is when
others won’t. One is the U.S.-based Carlyle Group,
which has five offices around Asia today, plans to have
eight by 2005, and expects to invest some $2.5 billion
in the region.
‘‘Our view is the time to get in is now,’’
said David Rubenstein, Carlyle’s co-founder and
managing director. ‘‘The time to leave is not now.’’
If others are avoiding the market, he said, that’s
great. It means less competition.
Asia consists of many nations, with different
conditions everywhere. Korea let foreign investors
restructure ailing local companies, and investors are
seeing returns. Japan’s banks, weighed down with bad
loans that have made the entire sector virtually
insolvent, haven’t faced up to the issues yet. Taiwan
sees China as a major competitor in the value-added
businesses that made the island so relatively
prosperous. Hong Kong has suffered a crash in property
values, accompanied by a wider deflation that has
everyone fearful for the future. And so on.
China is the preoccupation due to its size. Its
growing technological prowess is both a lure to
investors and a warning to competitors worldwide,
including in Silicon Valley.
Its growing middle class is also tantalizing.
Consumer lending on the mainland is still a tiny market,
said Dan Carroll, managing director of Newbridge
Capital. But it’s growing at what he called a ‘‘terrifying
rate.’’ This and other changes in the region spell
big opportunities in financial services, he said.
Corporate governance and state regulations remain a
problem, of course. China is still famous for opaque
financial reporting and difficult relations with
government agencies.
‘‘They don’t have a concept of civil servant,’’
said Richard Chang, president and chief executive of
Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing
International. ‘‘They have a concept of civil
officer’’ - a person who gives orders rather than
assistance.
But Chang, whose company is one of the major
successes in recent Chinese technology development, said
top government officials in China definitely understand
the issues when it comes to encouraging new industry and
winning new investment. It’s when you go below the top
levels that the barriers are more visible.
China’s overwhelming regional clout was a constant
subject of discussion. The nation’s increasingly
potent moves into the core of technology - design as
well as manufacturing - may pose a threat even to
powerhouses like Silicon Valley, by many accounts. With
low labor costs, a strong educational system and a
government that is increasingly willing to liberalize
business practices, the potential seems vast.
It’s a great story when you look at the big
picture, agreed Chang Sun, managing director of Warburg
Pincus in Hong Kong. But ‘‘it’s very difficult to
find people who have made money.’’
Hanson Cheah, co-founder of Hong Kong-based AsiaTech
Ventures, is one of the fortunate few. His firm invested
in EachNet, a Shanghai Internet auction start-up that
caught the attention of eBay, which took a stake in the
company and has the option to buy more.
AsiaTech, like other funds here, has had its share of
disappointments. It wrote off tens of millions of
dollars in recent investments.
But it hasn’t stopped investing, and it continues
to look for opportunities wherever they may be. ‘‘Taiwan
and Korea are still very interesting,’’ Cheah said.
Of course, he added, ‘‘China is the talk of the
town.’’