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Serious money
taking a look at China

November 20, 2002


HONG KONG - Raise your hand if you’ve heard this before: Successful investments in China require patience. Lots of patience.

The mantra hasn’t changed. But after years of waiting, along with more sour investments than anyone can count, serious money is looking at the world’s most populous nation as far more than a speculative bet.

That was one of the messages at the Asian Venture Forum here last week. Hundreds of investment professionals gathered at a luxury hotel to commiserate about shared woes in the wake of the continuing global economic troubles, but also to buzz about the genuine potential in China and other Asian markets.

China’s economy is racing along, growing at a rate that makes investors drool. Troubled companies in Japan and Korea still offer merger or buyout possibilities. And some major recent deals have turned profits.

But venture investing in the region is going in the same direction as investing everywhere else - down. The bursting of the Nasdaq bubble, the 1997 regional economic crisis and current weakness in the global economy are still hanging over the markets.

Asia venture funds raised a little under $10 billion in new money in 2001, far below the nearly $18 billion in the peak year of 2000, according to the Asian Venture Capital Journal. Investments dropped, but by a much smaller percentage, from $12.3 billion to $11.2 billion. Seed capital and start-up investments accounted for only a quarter of the money. Two-fifths went into expanding existing businesses.

Technology-related companies - telecommunications, electronics, computer equipment and other information technology - accounted for about 41 percent of the total investments for the year. Financial services captured about 13 percent.

One person’s worry is another’s opportunity. Some big investors from overseas are dramatically expanding their Asian presence, saying the time to move is when others won’t. One is the U.S.-based Carlyle Group, which has five offices around Asia today, plans to have eight by 2005, and expects to invest some $2.5 billion in the region.

‘‘Our view is the time to get in is now,’’ said David Rubenstein, Carlyle’s co-founder and managing director. ‘‘The time to leave is not now.’’ If others are avoiding the market, he said, that’s great. It means less competition.

Asia consists of many nations, with different conditions everywhere. Korea let foreign investors restructure ailing local companies, and investors are seeing returns. Japan’s banks, weighed down with bad loans that have made the entire sector virtually insolvent, haven’t faced up to the issues yet. Taiwan sees China as a major competitor in the value-added businesses that made the island so relatively prosperous. Hong Kong has suffered a crash in property values, accompanied by a wider deflation that has everyone fearful for the future. And so on.

China is the preoccupation due to its size. Its growing technological prowess is both a lure to investors and a warning to competitors worldwide, including in Silicon Valley.

Its growing middle class is also tantalizing. Consumer lending on the mainland is still a tiny market, said Dan Carroll, managing director of Newbridge Capital. But it’s growing at what he called a ‘‘terrifying rate.’’ This and other changes in the region spell big opportunities in financial services, he said.

Corporate governance and state regulations remain a problem, of course. China is still famous for opaque financial reporting and difficult relations with government agencies.

‘‘They don’t have a concept of civil servant,’’ said Richard Chang, president and chief executive of Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International. ‘‘They have a concept of civil officer’’ - a person who gives orders rather than assistance.

But Chang, whose company is one of the major successes in recent Chinese technology development, said top government officials in China definitely understand the issues when it comes to encouraging new industry and winning new investment. It’s when you go below the top levels that the barriers are more visible.

China’s overwhelming regional clout was a constant subject of discussion. The nation’s increasingly potent moves into the core of technology - design as well as manufacturing - may pose a threat even to powerhouses like Silicon Valley, by many accounts. With low labor costs, a strong educational system and a government that is increasingly willing to liberalize business practices, the potential seems vast.

It’s a great story when you look at the big picture, agreed Chang Sun, managing director of Warburg Pincus in Hong Kong. But ‘‘it’s very difficult to find people who have made money.’’

Hanson Cheah, co-founder of Hong Kong-based AsiaTech Ventures, is one of the fortunate few. His firm invested in EachNet, a Shanghai Internet auction start-up that caught the attention of eBay, which took a stake in the company and has the option to buy more.

AsiaTech, like other funds here, has had its share of disappointments. It wrote off tens of millions of dollars in recent investments.

But it hasn’t stopped investing, and it continues to look for opportunities wherever they may be. ‘‘Taiwan and Korea are still very interesting,’’ Cheah said.

Of course, he added, ‘‘China is the talk of the town.’’


Knight-Ridder Newspapers

Dan Gillmor is teaching part-time in Hong Kong this month.
Visit Dan’s online column, eJournal (www.siliconvalley.com/dangillmor).
E-mail dgillmorsjmercury.com.