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The
National Retail Federation said Tuesday it
expects holiday retails sales in November
and December — excluding automobiles,
gasoline and restaurants — to increase 3.6
and 4 percent or between $678 billion to
$682 billion.
Last
year, holiday spending was $655.8 billion.
“Our
forecast reflects the very realistic steady
momentum of the economy and overall strength
of the industry,” NRF President and CEO
Matthew Shay said in a news release.
“Although this year hasn’t been perfect,
especially with the recent devastating
hurricanes, we believe that a longer
shopping season and strong consumer
confidence will deliver retailers a strong
holiday season.”
Christmas is 32 days after Thanksgiving this
year, one day more than last year, and is on
a Monday instead of a Sunday, giving
consumers an extra weekend day to complete
shopping.
This
year’s forecast would meet or exceed last
year’s growth of 3.6 percent and the
five-year average of 3.5 percent. While
recent hurricanes are not expected to have a
significant long-term effect on the economy,
NRF is issuing this year’s forecast as a
range rather than the usual fixed percentage
because the impact of the storms on economic
indicators has made it difficult to make a
more precise forecast.
“Consumers continue to do the heavy lifting
in supporting our economy, and all the
fundamentals are aligned for them to
continue doing so during the holidays,” NRF
Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the
release. “The combination of job creation,
improved wages, tame inflation and an
increase in net worth all provide the
capacity and the confidence to spend.”
NRF’s
forecast is based on an economic model using
several indicators including consumer
credit, disposable personal income and
previous monthly retail sales. The overall
number includes the non-store category
(direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online
sales). |
