WASHINGTON ó A majority of
business economists foresee no recession in the United States within
the next 12 months but do predict a slowdown in growth this year. A
survey by the National Association for Business Economics finds that
nearly two-thirds of respondents think the economy will keep growing
this year in what would become the longest expansion on record in
U.S. history at more than 10 years.
Still, the survey results being released Monday reflect a collective
belief that some of the economyís momentum is fading. Compared with
the NABEís previous survey in October, for example, a smaller
proportion of economists said their companiesí sales were rising.
And fewer expect profit growth to increase. Corporate investments in
new equipment has also cooled.
Most of the economists say President Donald Trumpís economic
policies have done little to affect their businessesí plans. An
overwhelming majority ó 84 percent ó say Trumpís 2017 tax cuts,
which sharply reduced the burden on corporations, failed to
influence their companiesí hiring or investment outlooks. A nearly
equal proportion of respondents (77 percent) indicated that Trumpís
trade policies havenít affected their companiesí plans for hiring,
pricing or investment.
The results fit a broader pattern. The economy appears to be slowing
as a dose of stimulus from Trumpís tax cuts has been fading. Job
growth has been steady, but the stock market has stumbled and global
growth has deteriorated.
The NABE survey, which has been conducted quarterly since 1982, was
based on responses from 106 economists who are employed by companies
or industry trade associations.