August 18, 2009

MADISON - Gov. Jim Doyle's surprise decision not to seek re-election quickly shook up Wisconsin politics on Monday.

Doyle's announcement opened the door for a field of leading Democrats to run for governor, which could leave the party defending their vacated offices. Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton said through an aide Monday that she would run while U.S. Rep. Ron Kind said he might join the race.

Two prominent Republicans already running, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann, said Doyle's absence would allow them to talk more about their visions and less about his record. Another big-name Republican, U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, ended speculation by saying Monday he would not run.

Additional candidates from both parties were said to be considering the race. It will be the first time since 1982, when Gov. Lee Sherman Dreyfus stepped down after one term, that an incumbent Wisconsin governor is not up for re-election.

Doyle said he announced his decision now so contenders would have time to build statewide campaigns and raise money.

"Open gubernatorial seats don't happen often. I think anybody who has ever wanted to be governor has got to think about it a lot right now," said Republican strategist Mark Graul, who ran former U.S. Rep. Mark Green's unsuccessful campaign against Doyle in 2006. "There's a heckuva lot of people making phone calls, testing the waters a little bit."

Graul said Doyle's departure could have other implications. If Kind runs, his western Wisconsin district would give the GOP a chance of picking up a congressional seat. State Sen. Dan Kapanke is a leading GOP candidate there.

Lawton's run would open up the state's No. 2 position, which could be sought by Democrats in the Legislature. Superior Mayor Dave Ross, a Republican, is running for lieutenant governor.

"This could have a domino effect that really makes 2010 a politically exciting year for Wisconsin," Graul said.

Lawton, the two-term lieutenant governor from Green Bay, was the only one to say immediately after Doyle's announcement Monday that she would run for governor. "She'll have more to say about that in the near future," aide Ben Nuckels said.

Kind released a statement thanking supporters who were urging him to run and said he would decide in coming weeks.

An aide to Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett said Sunday that he had not talked about running yet. Barrett was still recovering from a beating with a metal pipe while trying to help a woman crying for help Saturday night.

Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, who ran for governor in 2002 and attorney general in 2006, did not rule out a run. State Sen. Jon Erpenbach, D-Waunakee, said he had taken calls from supporters urging him to run and was discussing the possibility with friends and family.

"It really truly is wide open. We have an incumbent governor who we all thought a month ago was going to run for re-election. Now he's not," Erpenbach said. "That's going to open the doors for a lot of others."

But he added: "It's an extremely difficult proposition, traveling the state for a year and a half and raising money."

On the Republican side, Walker said he believed it would be difficult for many candidates to get into the race since he had locked up much of the party's backing. Walker recently announced he had raised $1.1 million during the first six months of this year for his campaign. Neumann, a wealthy businessman, has not filed a campaign finance report.

Ryan, a Janesville Republican, said Monday that he would run for re-election to Congress.

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson didn't rule out a bid. Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen plans to run for re-election but through an aide left the door open to considering a gubernatorial run. Businessman Tim Michels, who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004, declined comment on a potential run.

Political observers differed on the impact of Doyle's decision to leave the race. Some said Doyle would have been hard to beat despite his low poll numbers, given that he has won five statewide campaigns and had the power of incumbency.

"I think it's much easier to run against a wide-open field than just against Jim Doyle," Neumann said. "There will be a lot more focus and attention on the race early on, which gives us a good opportunity to talk about our vision for the state."

Walker said his campaign strategy would not change. He said voters were unhappy with Doyle policies that the leading Democratic candidates would favor, which still gives him an opening to become the "change candidate."

But Thompson, a longtime foe of Doyle, said the governor would have been easier to beat than other Democrats given the tough economy and some of the unpopular policies in the state budget.

The last time Democrats had a competitive primary in 2002, they took back the governor's office. Doyle defeated Barrett and Falk in the primary before beating GOP Gov. Scott McCallum in the general election.

Associated Press