MADISON - With just over six months
until Election Day, none of the three remaining candidates for
president has a majority of support in Wisconsin, a poll released
Monday showed.
And so, yet again, the race in
Wisconsin appears too close to call.
The University of Wisconsin Survey
Center's Badger Poll shows that among likely voters Republican Sen.
John McCain of Arizona has a lead over Democratic New York Sen.
Hillary Rodham Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent.
But McCain is behind Illinois Sen.
Barack Obama should he win the Democratic nomination, the poll
shows. Obama leads McCain in the poll 47 percent to 43 percent.
But neither McCain nor Obama should
get excited about those results. When that question was limited to
likely voters, both matchups were within the poll's 5.3
percentage-point margin of error, meaning statistically the race is
up for grabs no matter who the Democratic nominee is.
That should come as no surprise given
that Wisconsin has been closely divided in the past two presidential
elections. Both parties' candidates consider the state winnable this
year given the nearly even breakdown of Republican and Democratic
voters.
In 2004, Democrat John Kerry beat
President Bush by 11,813 votes. Four years earlier, Democrat Al Gore
beat Bush by fewer than 6,000 votes.
"Most people expect Wisconsin
will be a key battleground state," said UW political science
professor Katherine Cramer Walsh, who worked on the poll. "We
should expect a lot more attention from the candidates whether or
not people like that."
This year's race is clearly on the
minds of the 521 people randomly contacted for the poll done between
April 15 and Thursday. The margin of error was plus or minus 4
percentage points when all responses were included.
Sixty-five percent said they have
given a lot of thought to the candidates running this year, up from
just 31 percent in December.
Interest may have increased with
Wisconsin's February primary, won Obama on the Democratic side.
McCain, who had already emerged as the Republican front-runner,
warded off a challenge from then-candidate Mike Huckabee.
The poll released Monday started in
the week leading up to Pennsylvania's April 22 primary and went
through the two days following it. Clinton defeated Obama by 10
points, which may have skewed the survey in her favor, Walsh said.
Both candidates continue to campaign
since neither has enough delegates to clinch the nomination. The
next primary is May 6 in Indiana and North Carolina.
Other poll results show:
— McCain had the highest net
favorability rating at 20 percent. He was followed by Obama at 10
percent. Clinton had a negative rating of 7 percent, meaning more
people had an unfavorable impression of her than positive.
— If Clinton is the nominee, 25
percent of Obama backers said they would vote for McCain. But if
Obama is the nominee, only 17 percent of Clinton supporters said
they would vote for McCain.
— Democrats were trusted more than
Republicans to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq (45
percent to 25 percent), the economy (53 percent to 32 percent),
corruption in Washington, D.C., (45 percent to 25 percent), and
foreign relations (52 percent to 31 percent).
Republicans were trusted only
marginally more than Democrats, and well within the poll's margin of
error, on the issues of immigration (41 percent to 38 percent) and
fighting terrorism (42 percent to 41 percent)