Badger Poll: No clear presidential front-runner in Wisconsin

April 29, 2008

 
MADISON - With just over six months until Election Day, none of the three remaining candidates for president has a majority of support in Wisconsin, a poll released Monday showed.

And so, yet again, the race in Wisconsin appears too close to call.

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The University of Wisconsin Survey Center's Badger Poll shows that among likely voters Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona has a lead over Democratic New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent.

But McCain is behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama should he win the Democratic nomination, the poll shows. Obama leads McCain in the poll 47 percent to 43 percent.

But neither McCain nor Obama should get excited about those results. When that question was limited to likely voters, both matchups were within the poll's 5.3 percentage-point margin of error, meaning statistically the race is up for grabs no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

That should come as no surprise given that Wisconsin has been closely divided in the past two presidential elections. Both parties' candidates consider the state winnable this year given the nearly even breakdown of Republican and Democratic voters.

In 2004, Democrat John Kerry beat President Bush by 11,813 votes. Four years earlier, Democrat Al Gore beat Bush by fewer than 6,000 votes.

"Most people expect Wisconsin will be a key battleground state," said UW political science professor Katherine Cramer Walsh, who worked on the poll. "We should expect a lot more attention from the candidates whether or not people like that."

This year's race is clearly on the minds of the 521 people randomly contacted for the poll done between April 15 and Thursday. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points when all responses were included.

Sixty-five percent said they have given a lot of thought to the candidates running this year, up from just 31 percent in December.

Interest may have increased with Wisconsin's February primary, won Obama on the Democratic side. McCain, who had already emerged as the Republican front-runner, warded off a challenge from then-candidate Mike Huckabee.

The poll released Monday started in the week leading up to Pennsylvania's April 22 primary and went through the two days following it. Clinton defeated Obama by 10 points, which may have skewed the survey in her favor, Walsh said.

Both candidates continue to campaign since neither has enough delegates to clinch the nomination. The next primary is May 6 in Indiana and North Carolina.

Other poll results show:

— McCain had the highest net favorability rating at 20 percent. He was followed by Obama at 10 percent. Clinton had a negative rating of 7 percent, meaning more people had an unfavorable impression of her than positive.

— If Clinton is the nominee, 25 percent of Obama backers said they would vote for McCain. But if Obama is the nominee, only 17 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain.

— Democrats were trusted more than Republicans to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq (45 percent to 25 percent), the economy (53 percent to 32 percent), corruption in Washington, D.C., (45 percent to 25 percent), and foreign relations (52 percent to 31 percent).

Republicans were trusted only marginally more than Democrats, and well within the poll's margin of error, on the issues of immigration (41 percent to 38 percent) and fighting terrorism (42 percent to 41 percent)

Associated Press