|
The PC
has been at the center of the computing universe for 30
years. But that's about to change.
Within
two or three years, smart phones will outsell PCs, if
analysts' projections hold true. Already, netbooks —
essentially low-cost laptops with more limited
capabilities than standard PCs — are the
fastest-growing part of the PC market.
In coming
years, the very idea of having a center for computing in
the home is likely to go away, replaced with a
distributed array of linked devices that will include
not just smart phones and notebooks, but TVs, set-top
boxes, tablet devices, appliances and even alarm clocks.
These devices will largely eliminate the need for a
powerful PC and allow us to communicate with friends,
access information such as stock quotes and control
things such as lighting and alarm systems, wherever we
happen to be inside our outside our house.
The folks
at
Google
have been talking a lot lately about this
transformation.
John Herlihy
, who heads
Google's
European operations, stirred up a fuss earlier this
month when he declared that the PC will be
"irrelevant" in three years, replaced by smart
phones. And last month,
Google
CEO
Eric Schmidt
said the company plans to focus on services and
applications for high-end smart phones, not PCs.
Herlihy
is overstating the case. Hundreds of millions of PCs
will be sold in the next few years, expanding an
existing base of about 1 billion PCs in use. For many
people, the PC will continue to be their primary
computing device for years to come.
The first
computer for many others, though, particularly in the
developing world, will be a smart phone. Even in the
developed world, many people already use smart phones
for tasks they previously undertook on a PC.
The power
of the processors inside smart phones is increasing
rapidly, allowing them to run increasingly complex
applications. At the same time, the speeds of the data
networks they connect to are increasing as well,
allowing the devices to more easily access powerful
applications stored in the cloud.
As
capable as smart phones are becoming, though, they're
not likely to take over all of the PC's uses. Instead,
they'll be supplemented by other devices.
For
example, many analysts expect Apple's iPad to follow in
the iPhone's path as a hit device and spearhead a new
market for tablet computers. There's a good chance that
many people will replace notebooks and desktops with
those devices for watching Internet-based videos and
playing games. That's because they have large, bright
screens like notebooks, but they are easier to hold and
much more portable.
But the
transformation of computing won't end with tablets.
There's a
good chance that your TV, refrigerator, toaster oven and
other appliances have processors inside them. So do many
toys, not to mention your iPod and digital camera. Your
car probably has several. Game consoles have processors
that rival PCs in power.
Now
networking technologies are starting to link these
computer-enabled devices together. Some of the devices
are even starting to get full-scale operating systems
that will allow them to run multiple applications, much
like a PC. And new interface technologies offer the
possibility of interacting with these devices in more
natural ways than a keyboard and mouse.
Together,
these developments are paving the way for a new kind of
computer, one that's made up of many distributed parts.
You can
glimpse the future in things like Sonos' multiroom
speaker system. It lets you stream music from Pandora to
a speaker in your bedroom while playing a song from your
music library in your study. Although a PC can be used
in such a setup, it's unnecessary: You can control
what's playing with an iPhone and store your music on a
networked hard drive.
Similar
systems can control lighting, thermostats and alarms.
In the
near future, you most likely won't need a smart phone.
You'll be able to get stock quotes by talking to your
alarm clock. And you'll be able to start a video
conference from your TV by talking and waving to it.
The PC
has been a great tool for many years. But its
replacements promise to make computing an even more
central — and personal — part of our lives.
|
