If
you’re shopping for a new television this holiday
season, you won’t find much in the way of new
technology — at least not at prices most people can
afford.
But
you will find low prices on entry-level TVs — even on
jumbo-sized sets. And you’ll also find that when it
comes to features, midrange TVs are offering much more
bang for the buck than ever before.
"I
think consumers will be pleasantly surprised," said
Shawn DuBravac, chief economist of the Consumer
Electronics Association, especially if they haven’t
"gone out and looked at TVs lately."
For
the past five or six years, a steady stream of new
features have made their way into TVs. Higher
resolutions and faster refresh rates improved screen
images, LED backlights resulted in extra-thin sets, and
growing production of ever-larger display sizes gave
consumers the chance to buy huge TVs at moderate prices.
But
this year, the market is in a lull. The premium features
from the past two years — Internet connectivity and
3-D viewing — are becoming standard fare on midrange
sets, but nothing is really taking their place.
"We’re
sort of in this awkward position" in the market,
said Linn Huang, a senior research analyst at IDC, a
technology consulting firm. "From a technology
standpoint in terms of holidays, you’re not going to
see anything groundbreakingly new."
At
least that’s true at the big-box stores where most
consumers shop for TVs. Some cutting-edge features —
most notably ultrahigh resolution "4K" TVs and
TVs based on OLED technology — are starting to make
their way into production models. But the numbers of
those TVs being produced are so small that they likely
won’t show up at your local Best Buy or Costco, Huang
said.
And
even if they did, the prices on those TVs will put them
out of reach for everyone but the most affluent
consumers. Sony’s 84-inch 4K TV, for example, is
priced at around $25,000.
"Obviously
prices will come down, but not enough to be
meaningful" in the near term, said Jim Willcox, a
senior editor who covers electronics at Consumer
Reports.
But
if you’re willing to settle for something other than
the cutting edge in TV technology, you’re likely to
get a good deal. On a tour of big-box stores last week,
a reporter found 32-inch models priced as low as $200,
46-inch ones as low as $480 and 60-inch plasma TVs for
less than $800. And that was before the expected
discounts for Black Friday.
According
to NPD Group, a market research firm, the average price
of a 50-inch television sold in September was $644. That’s
down from $661 in September of last year and well off
what consumers would have paid two or three years ago.
But
don’t expect prices to continue to drop dramatically
on entry-level models, warn analysts.
Prices
fell sharply in recent years in part because the Great
Recession struck at the same time that TV makers were
ramping up production. That left manufacturers,
distributors and retailers with an abundance of
inventory that they needed to clear out. With the
resulting low prices, profits on TV sales are small, and
prices can’t get much lower.
This
holiday season, "the discounts will be good, but
they won’t be exorbitant (discounts) that we saw last
holiday season," Huang said.
Where
consumers are likely to find good deals is on midrange
models, which are now more fully featured than ever. Of
TVs sold in September that were 50 inches or larger, 54
percent can be connected to the Internet for the purpose
of accessing online services such as Netflix or Pandora,
according to NPD. That month, 22 percent of TVs sold
that were 40 inches or larger offered 3-D viewing
capabilities.
Particularly
on bigger-screen TVs, "you definitely are getting
more features," said Ben Arnold, an industry
analyst at NPD. "You’re definitely getting more
sets that are connected."
But
consumers will pay a premium for those features.
According to NPD, consumers on average paid about $350
extra to get a 50-inch TV that can connect to Internet
and about $360 more for one that has 3-D viewing.
But
analysts expect those prices to come down this holiday
season — and to be negotiable.
Retailers
have "no wiggle room on those advertised
specials," which are typically low-end models,
noted Consumer Reports’ Willcox. But they can be
flexible on pricier TVs, he said, adding that consumers
can use the special prices "to negotiate a deal on
a step-up model with the features that really matter to
you."
And
Willcox offered another tidbit of advice: If you can
wait to buy a TV, it may save you money. The lowest
prices on TVs typically aren’t found on Black Friday
but closer to Christmas.
The
end of February and early March is another good time to
buy, because that’s when retailers typically clear out
the previous year’s models to make way for the new
ones.
"People
are well aware that it’s an industry that rewards you
for procrastinating," Willcox said. "TVs will
be better and maybe cheaper the longer you wait."