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SAN
FRANCISCO
—
Intel
CEO
Paul Otellini
predicted worldwide shipments of personal computers
could equal or even exceed those during 2008, a more
bullish prediction than that offered by two prominent
research organizations that had forecast a slight drop
in PC shipments this year.
"My
own sense is that we are likely to see units in the PC
markets flat to slightly up this year over 2008,"
said Otellini, speaking to a
San Francisco
gathering of people who develop products and software
applications based on the
Santa Clara
company's chips.
Based in
part on an expected increase in PC sales when
Microsoft
introduces its new Windows 7 operating system later this
year, Otellini said, "I think the market is poised
for a resurgence."
His
assessment is a bit more optimistic than the predictions
of market research firms
Gartner
of
Stamford, Conn.
, and IDC of
Framingham, Mass.
Given the
recession's drag on consumer and other spending,
Gartner's
most recent and as-yet-unpublished forecast is for PC
shipments to be down 2 percent this year from 2008, said
research director
George Shiffler
.
While
that is considerably better than the 11.9 percent drop
Gartner
had predicted earlier in the year, Shiffler said the
economy would have to perk up substantially to validate
Otellini's forecast, especially the idea of PC shipments
from computer makers to retailers and others showing a
yearly increase.
"It
would require an exceptionally strong second half,
driven by an exceptionally strong fourth quarter,"
he said. "It's possible, but it's not likely."
Still,
Shiffler wouldn't rule out the chance Otellini could be
right, because
Intel
— the world's biggest chip maker — is widely
regarded as a barometer for the tech industry. Moreover,
he said, "given their market position, they have
the potential to make what they say happen" by
lowering their chip prices to help stimulate PC sales.
In its
most recent forecast of
Sept. 16
, IDC predicted about a 1 percent drop in PC shipments
for 2009 over 2008.
Intel
, whose microprocessors are used in the vast majority of
PCs, traditionally has depended heavily upon PC sales to
bolster its revenue. Lately, with PC sales slowing, the
company has begun making a major effort to branch out
into other markets, including cell phones, where it sees
a multibillion dollar opportunity for its brainy chips.
However,
the PC business is likely to remain a mainstay of
Intel's
business for the foreseeable future because, as Otellini
put it during the conference, owning a PC "is no
longer a discretionary purchase. This is something that
is fundamental to what all of us do day in and day
out."
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