SAN FRANCISCO - The new version of Apple Inc.'s iPhone is set to go on sale July 11, and the latest parlor game among analysts involves guessing how much AT&T Inc. is going to pay to subsidize the cost of the device for consumers.

Those estimates are high, ranging between a subsidy of $200 to $400 per phone, according to a MarketWatch survey of analyst reports.

Apple made waves earlier this month when it announced that a new 3G version of the iPhone would go on sale at prices starting at $199 - about half the current price for the product.

To get to that price, AT&T will be paying Apple what is known as a carrier subsidy for each iPhone. The exact amount of that subsidy has remained undisclosed by both companies, though it has become the subject of a broad range of speculation among those who follow Apple and the mobile-phone marketplace.

Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves predicts that Apple will receive an initial subsidy of $350 for every iPhone sold. Yair Reiner of Oppenheimer & Co. estimates that AT&T is paying a $325 subsidy on every iPhone. American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said that the subsidy could range from between $200 and $400 per unit.

"When AT&T subsidizes the iPhone, they're essentially making it cheaper for the consumer," said Shiv Bakhshi, director of mobile-device research at IDC. "Because it's an iconic phone, it invites that customer into that network."

Neither Apple nor AT&T will say how much of a subsidy is involved with the iPhone. The first version of the device did not come with a subsidy, though AT&T paid Apple a monthly fee for every iPhone customer it signed up. Apple ended up selling more than 6 million units of the first version of the iPhone in less than a year.

Subsidies are not uncommon in the wireless market. For instance, it is believed that wireless carriers paid Motorola Inc. subsidies of as much as $200 for the Razr phone when it first came out to keep the price down and attract more buyers. The upshot is that by covering part of the cost of a phone, carriers expect they can make more money back over the length of a typical, two-year service contract.

AT&T currently is to price its iPhone plans at $39.99 a month, charging an additional $30 a month for unlimited 3G data. Business-data plans will cost $45 a month.

Oppenheimer analyst Reiner said that he based his $325 subsidy figure on factors such as estimates for 4.5 million to 6.5 million iPhone sales in the second half of the year, along with AT&T's forecasts that the 3G iPhone will reduce its earnings by 10 cents to 12 cents a share in 2008 and 2009.

Reiner estimates that the AT&T iPhone subsidy is about $125 more than what is typically paid for high-end wireless handsets in the United States.

"The size of the subsidy reflects AT&T's faith in the iPhone's ability to attract new subscribers and increase average revenue (per user)," he wrote in a research note. "But it also has positive implications for (the) iPhone."

The Oppenheimer analyst also said that the subsidy "collapses the price umbrella that inspired would-be iPhone killers," who counted on their lower-priced phones to steal away business. Because of this, Reiner estimates that Apple will be able to sell 15.2 million iPhones by the end of 2008 and 33.2 million in 2009.

In addition to leading to higher iPhone sales for Apple, Cowen & Co. analyst Arnie Berman said the collapsing of that price umbrella could lead to a "subsidy war" among wireless carriers, as they seek to attract buyers.

AT&T's subsidy decision, he added "reflects a land-grab mentality" that will play out as other wireless carriers expand their lines of smart phones.