And it’s not just any old Oscars ceremony, but the first in ages to feature 10 nominees for best picture.

There are plenty of pundits wondering how this change in the rules is going to affect the ultimate outcome. In theory, a title with only 10.1 percent of the vote could walk away with the statue. Odd things do happen when you deal in the business of consensus, and the 2010 Academy Awards could be exhibit A that more is not always necessarily better.

This is a year of few sure things, and many two-way contests. "Avatar" vs. "The Hurt Locker." Kathryn Bigelow vs. James Cameron. George Clooney vs. Jeff Bridges. There are a lot of long shots, but predicting the winner is darn near impossible. So I’m thinking Sunday night is going to be quite the thrill ride.

Here are my picks for who’s going to walk away with the top 10 categories:

Best picture

It’s not every year that the top four films on my year-end top-10 list wind up nominated for best picture in some fashion ("Up in the Air," "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Fantastic Mr. Fox"). So I’m pretty happy with the nominees. But my number five didn’t make the cut: "A Single Man," a moving chronicle of one man’s final days on Earth, as he mulls suicide over the loss of a lover and is reminded constantly of all the reasons why it’s great to be alive.

Will Win: "The Hurt Locker"

Should Win: "Up in the Air"

Should have been nominated: "A Single Man"

Best director

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"

Should have been nominated: Wes Anderson, "Fantastic Mr. Fox."

Best animated feature

Will Win: "Up"

Should Win: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

Should have been nominated: "Ponyo"

Best documentary feature

Will Win: "The Cove"

Should Win: "The Cove"

Should have been nominated: "Crude"

Best actress

Will Win: Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"

Should Win: Carey Mulligan, "An Education"

Should have been nominated: Saoirse Ronan, "The Lovely Bones"

Best actor

Will Win: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"

Should Win: George Clooney, "Up in the Air"

Should have been nominated: Viggo Mortensen, "The Road"

Best supporting actor

Will Win: Christoph Waltz, "Inglorious Basterds"

Should Win: Christoph Waltz, "Inglorious Basterds"

Should have been nominated: Christian McKay "Me and Orson Welles"

Best supporting actress

Will Win: Mo’Nique, "Precious"

Should Win: Mo’Nique, "Precious"

Should have been nominated: Julianne Moore, "A Single Man"

Best original screenplay

Will Win: "The Hurt Locker"

Should Win: "Inglorious Basterds"

Should have been nominated: "In the Loop"

Best adapted screenplay

Will Win: "Up in the Air"

Should Win: "Up in the Air"

Should have been nominated: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

E-mail: snyderreviews@hotmail.com

Exclusive Oscar night Sunday

MILWAUKEE - Milwaukee-area residents can experience the thrills and surprises of the 82nd Academy Awards at an exclusive Oscar night event to benefit COA Youth & Family Centers.

The 12th annual Oscar Night America gala will take place at the Milwaukee Hilton City Center, 509 W. Wisconsin Ave., from 5 p.m. to midnight Sunday.

The black-tie optional, red-carpet affair features a formal dinner, silent auction and a live presentation of the Academy Awards show. Guests will also receive the same official program distributed to the guests at the Oscar presentation at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood.

The local event has grown in popularity each year - last year’s rasied more than $135,000 and drew over 300 guests. All proceeds directly benefit COA, an organization that helps Milwaukee children, teens and familes through programs and services that emphasize academic success, health and well-being and self-sufficiency. COA served over 9,000 childen and families in 2009.

Nationally, Oscar Night America has raised nearly $27 million since 1994 for local charities around the country. COA is the only nonprofit organization in Wisconsin officially sanctioned by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to host this event.

"At Oscar Night America, local movie fans celebrate Hollywood make-believe, and the real success stories COA accomplishes every day for children and families in Milwaukee," said Keri Schroeder, COA development and public relations director.

Tickets are $150 each. To order tickets or for more information, visit www.coayfc.org or call Schroeder at 414-263-8383.